Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
